Here Are the Players Who Could Score Heavily at the 2026 World Cup
With the start of the World Cup fast approaching, kicking off on Thursday at 21 CET with Mexico against South Africa, it is of course time for us to write about which players have the best chance of becoming the tournament's top scorer.As everyone who follows football knows, this year's World Cup has been significantly expanded in terms of the number of teams, from the previous 32 to 48. This means that quite a few smaller nations are taking part, and we have teams that normally would never have managed to qualify for a World Cup. It also means that there is one extra match compared with a normal World Cup, as we will now see a Round of 32 in the knockout stage, and the teams that reach the semi-finals will therefore play a total of eight matches (the semi-finalists are guaranteed to play either the final or the third-place match as well). These two factors mean that we are likely to see more goals than usual, as some of the smaller nations may completely collapse when they face a big team in the mood, and there is also one additional match in which to score goals.
However, it is worth keeping in mind that several of the bigger players are coming off a season with many matches in their legs and may be rested when facing weaker teams, especially if their team has already more or less secured top spot in the group. So one factor to consider when trying to guess who will win the Golden Boot is, for example: will a star striker really play the matches where he has the chance to score an easy hat-trick? Argentina, for instance, face Jordan in the final round of group matches; if Argentina have already secured first place in the group, would they not choose to rest Messi?
The record for most goals in a single World Cup is held by Frenchman Just Fontaine, who scored 13 goals in six matches at the 1958 World Cup. And even though there are greater opportunities to break this record now (for the reasons mentioned above), it is doubtful whether any player will be quite that successful, so Fontaine will probably keep his record anyway.
The Favourites to Win the Golden Boot
We will of course start with the favourites to become the tournament's top scorer, and it is primarily one of these six players who is likely to win it. We have also chosen to rank them here.
1. Kylian Mbappé, France
That Kylian Mbappé is the biggest favourite to win the Golden Boot is fairly obvious, and it is not difficult to explain why either. He is the reigning World Cup top scorer after his eight goals in 2022, he plays for one of the teams that are among the biggest favourites to win the World Cup, and he won the scoring charts in both La Liga and the UEFA Champions League during the season just gone. Another major motivation for Mbappé is that he is on 12 World Cup goals in total and is four goals away from equalling Miroslav Klose, the leading goalscorer in World Cup history, and five goals away from overtaking him.If we are going to talk about disadvantages for Mbappé, France are in a relatively tough group with Norway, Senegal and Iraq, a group they should admittedly win in the end but which will not provide any easy matches. In addition, France are a slightly "sensitive" team, with problems and tensions within the squad and management from time to time, which could cause their focus to drift. And of course, it should also be mentioned that Mbappé, despite winning the scoring charts, has had a season with problems at his club, so perhaps his confidence is not quite at the one hundred per cent level it usually is.
2. Harry Kane, England
Harry Kane scored as many as 36 goals in the Bundesliga this season, so there is no issue with his goalscoring form, and Kane is almost always a guarantee of goals. Even though England struggle to win major tournaments, they often go far, so Kane will most likely get to play many matches. He is also rarely injured, he is the team's designated penalty taker, and since he is now 32 years old this could be his last World Cup, so we can expect him to be highly motivated.England also have a relatively tough group with Croatia, Ghana and Panama. They should win the group fairly comfortably, but these are not whipping boys, so you should not necessarily expect huge numbers of goals.
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3. Erling Haaland, Norway
Erling Haaland has scored 55 goals in 50 matches for the Norwegian national team, giving him an incredible average of over 1.1 goals per game, and in World Cup qualifying he scored an astonishing 16 goals in eight matches. Norway won their group in style with eight straight victories, with the 4-1 away win against Italy the absolute highlight. They have also impressed in the warm-up matches ahead of the World Cup, especially against Sweden, where at times they played with them and the fact that the win only ended 3-1 feels very misleading, despite Haaland as well as Martin Ødegaard being rested for that match.Now, however, it is the World Cup that matters, and the circumstances are very different. They have ended up in one of the toughest groups and, with a bit of bad luck, could even miss out on progressing from the group, even if that does not feel likely.
4. Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo has now turned 41 over in Saudi Arabia, and the fact that he "only" finished third in the scoring charts this season in such a weak league perhaps proves that. But as everyone knows, he does everything he can to keep himself in the best possible shape, and he is still a sharp goalscorer, as well as the team's first-choice penalty taker, and can still pose a threat from set pieces. Portugal are also a really strong team and have been drawn in a group with Colombia as well as the more modest DR Congo and Uzbekistan, which means they could score quite a few goals in the group stage.The biggest question mark is, of course, whether Ronaldo's body can cope with such a demanding match schedule as this World Cup will involve.
5. Lionel Messi, Argentina
Lionel Messi is not exactly young anymore either, as he turns 39 on 24 June, but just like Ronaldo he continues to score plenty of goals (in a weaker league, admittedly), and no one doubts that he will be important for Argentina as they look to defend their World Cup title. Argentina won the South American qualifiers comfortably, and Messi was the top scorer in qualifying with his 8 goals there.And once again we can make the comparison with Ronaldo when it comes to the question marks - will the body hold up? Argentina have many good attacking players (for example Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez), so Messi is likely to be rested whenever the opportunity arises.
6. Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain
Our final candidate is Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal, and in truth he is not really a player who should be on a list like this. The logic, however, is that he is the likely first choice at the front of Spain's attack, and Spain are, together with France, the biggest favourites at this World Cup. Even though Oyarzabal is not an out-and-out goal machine like the players above, he is by no means a poor finisher, and even if Spain's goals are more spread out among the players, he is the most likely candidate to score the most goals for the team.Outsiders Who Could Become the World Cup's Top Scorer
For the reasons we mentioned at the beginning of this article, namely that there are so many weak teams, it is not impossible that a player explodes in a single group-stage match and scores 4-5 goals in one game, and this opens the door for more unexpected names to win the Golden Boot. There are therefore plenty of outsiders, and we have picked out four names who could very well end up as the World Cup's top scorer in the end.
Lautaro Martínez, Argentina
The Argentine Lautaro Martinez has been a very reliable and consistent goalscorer for several years now, even if he does not reach the same levels that the top names above usually do. But Argentina are a very strong team, and if Messi is rested, it is primarily Martínez who will be expected to step up, and it is entirely possible that he will do so many times and reach a high number of goals.
Lamine Yamal, Spain
Lamine Yamal was one of the big reasons why Spain won the European Championship in 2024, when he was still only 16 for most of the tournament and turned 17 before the final, and he is one of the major poster boys of this tournament. However, Yamal was injured throughout the final part of the La Liga season, and his physical status is still something of a question mark. This means that the 18-year-old (who turns 19 in July) will be eased into the tournament carefully and may therefore not play that much at the start. In addition, he is not (not yet, at least) as consistent a goalscorer as the other names, and that is why he has to settle for being an outsider here.
Romelu Lukaku, Belgium
Our next candidate must be considered something of a gamble. Romelu Lukaku, with his 90 international goals, is by far Belgium's greatest goalscorer of all time, but he has now reached the age of 33. He scored only one goal for Napoli this season, and the reason for that modest return, to say the least, is that he has been injured for basically the entire season. According to reports, he is now fully injury-free and ready to play.Belgium also have a quite easy group, at least on paper, with Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. The Belgian golden generation is essentially gone now, but that does not at all mean that Belgium are a poor team. Perhaps the minimal pressure, compared with recent tournaments, can help the Belgians perform better and go far, and if so there are great opportunities for the powerhouse Lukaku to get on the scoresheet many times.
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