Five Underdog Teams to Keep an Eye on at the 2026 World Cup

Going all the way and winning a World Cup is very difficult for smaller nations, but we often see an underdog team make it all the way to the semi-finals. At the last World Cup, in Qatar in 2022, it was Morocco that went all the way to the semi-finals, where they lost 2-0 to France, and in 2018 Croatia made it all the way to the final, where they lost 4-2 to France. In recent history we also remember South Korea and Türkiye's runs at the 2002 World Cup and Sweden in 1994 (and Bulgaria that same year).

So which nations have a chance of going far in this World Cup? This is often difficult to predict, since it is all about surprises, peak performances and a little bit of luck, but we have still picked out five teams that we believe have a slightly better chance than other smaller nations of surprising this year.

Edson Álvarez (here battling for the ball with Neymar) is one of Mexico's most important players

Mexico

We start with one of the host nations, Mexico. Playing a World Cup on home soil is always a major advantage, as the players are used to the climate and surroundings, and of course the huge support from the crowd should not be underestimated.

They are in a clearly manageable group (as is often the case for the host nations), together with South Africa, South Korea and Czechia. None of the teams are pushovers, but none of them are teams to fear either.

Mexico's team perhaps lacks that obvious world star and will mainly have to rely on its collective, but this also means they are less dependent on certain players performing at their very best, and there is also plenty of experience in this team. Key players will be defensive midfielder Edson Álvarez, experienced goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa (152 caps), and up front much depends on Fulham's 35-year-old striker Raúl Jiménez. A possible joker is Milan striker Santiago Giménez, even if he has had a shaky season in Italy and has not quite reached the level he showed when he played for Feyenoord.

Mexico's form is also good. They come into the World Cup with three straight wins against Serbia (5-1), Australia (1-0) and Ghana (2-0), and they are unbeaten in eight matches. Since Mexico are a host nation and did not need to play qualifying matches, these results are from friendlies, but the trend is still positive. Last summer they also won the Concacaf Gold Cup after beating the United States in the final.

Historically, Mexico almost always make it through the group stage, but they have often struggled to progress once the knockout stage begins. If they manage to do so this time, which should be easier than before because of the home advantage, the path is open for them to keep springing surprises and go far in the tournament.

Can Takefusa Kubo take Japan far in this World Cup?

Japan

Japan are a nation that are earning more and more respect and are no longer just a "difficult" team to face, but a side that can regularly beat major nations in individual matches. It is a team full of technical quality, pace, collective discipline, an impressive never-give-up attitude and plenty of players with experience from Europe's biggest leagues.

Group F, which they belong to, should be fairly manageable for the Japanese. The Netherlands are favourites to win the group, but they have not convinced in the friendlies leading up to the World Cup. Sweden are not in their best form right now (to put it mildly), and finally Tunisia are not one of the stronger African teams, even if they won their qualifying group surprisingly easily without losing a single match.

The team has no major superstar names, but plenty of respected and skilful players who are well established at good European clubs, such as Real Sociedad midfielder Takefusa Kubo, Liverpool defensive midfielder Wataru Endo, Eintracht Frankfurt's Ritsu Doan, Feyenoord striker (and Eredivisie top scorer) Ayase Ueda and Ajax's talented full-back Takehiro Tomiyasu, formerly of Arsenal.

In terms of form, things also look very good. They won their World Cup qualifying group relatively comfortably ahead of Australia, but what is more impressive is their six straight wins in friendlies, during which they have, among other things, beaten Brazil 3-2 and England 1-0 in front of a packed Wembley.

Japan have never gone further than the round of 16 at a World Cup but hopes of going further are greater than ever this time.

Erling Haaland is the guy who is supposed to take Norway far

Norway

That Norway would be considered a team capable of causing an upset and going far at a World Cup is probably not something many people would have believed a few years ago. This is only the fourth time ever that Norway have qualified for a World Cup, and the last time was 28 years ago, at the 1998 World Cup in France.

Now, however, they are here, and they feel stronger than ever. First and foremost, Erling Haaland is of course the big name, possibly the best striker in the world in recent years, but they also have a world-class player in Arsenal's Martin Ødegaard in midfield. In addition to those names, they have reliable goalscorer Alexander Sørloth (Atletico Madrid), the highly talented and fast attacking midfielder Antonio Nusa (RB Leipzig) and the defensively important midfielder Sander Berge (Fulham), along with several useful players who complement the stars.

They won their World Cup qualifying group in impressive fashion, with eight straight wins and a full 37 goals scored (an average of 4.6 goals per match), and they have shown stable form in the friendlies since then. Now, however, they have a completely different level of opposition to master, as they have one of the big favourites, France, in their group, as well as tricky Senegal (who, by the way, could also have been a team on this list) and hard-to-judge Iraq.

Even though Haaland is not the only important player in the team, he is still the one they will have to rely on if they are to go far. An injury to him would be devastating, but if he is in top form, he can basically carry the team far on his own. It is also possible that the lack of major tournament experience will show once the knockout matches begin (if they get that far), but either way, the feeling is that Norway can go far in this tournament.

Arda Güler is one of Türkiye's more important players

Türkiye

Türkiye were one of the great surprise teams at the 2002 World Cup in Japan/South Korea, when they not only reached the semi-finals, but also won the bronze medal match against co-hosts South Korea. That was actually also the last time Türkiye qualified for the World Cup. The star back then was Hakan Sükür, and even if they do not have any players with the same star status now, they do have some incredibly exciting names in the squad.

The squad includes two of perhaps the world's most exciting talents in Real Madrid's Arda Güler and Juventus' Kenan Yildiz. However, perhaps the biggest key player is Inter's Hakan Çalhanoglu, who brings experience, as well as world-class passing and set pieces. Other important players are the wingers Kerem Aktürkoglu and Baris Alper Yilmaz.

The group they have ended up in is not the most difficult, with host nation the United States, Paraguay and Australia. None of the teams are sides Türkiye will simply run over, or can even count on beating comfortably, but their chances of going through are certainly good.

The thing with Türkiye is that they are a team that can perform incredibly well when they have momentum. Then the energy and fighting spirit are at their peak, and if they start the tournament well and gain momentum, they can go far. If the play starts to stutter a little, there is a risk that they will fold.

Moisés Caicedo is vital to Ecuador

Ecuador

Ecuador are taking part in the World Cup for the fifth time and were also present in Qatar in 2022. This is a very strong defensive team, and they are almost built for knockout football, with tight matches, low risk, a strong midfield and dangerous counter-attacks.

They finished second in the very difficult South American qualifying campaign, and did so despite having to start qualifying with a three-point deduction after the Byron Castillo case, in which Ecuador were punished for incorrect information in documents linked to the player's passport. In 18 matches, they conceded only five goals and kept 13 clean sheets, which if anything proves the team's defensive qualities.

Chelsea defensive midfielder Moisés Caicedo is Ecuador's most important player and extremely important to their defensive game, and the back line with players such as Willian Pacho (Paris Saint-Germain), Piero Hincapié (Arsenal last season on loan from Bayer Leverkusen) and Pervis Estupiñán (Milan) is naturally also vital for keeping things tight. Offensively, 36-year-old veteran Enner Valencia is still an important figure.

In their group, they face Germany, Ivory Coast and the small island nation of Curaçao. Germany may be favourites to win it, but it is difficult to know where the Germans stand, and Ivory Coast, despite many talented players, struggle to reach any higher level, so Ecuador should be able to progress fairly comfortably.

The big question mark is of course the attack, but since they are so difficult to score against, they are a nightmare for every team to face, something that will become very important in the knockout matches.