The Favourites to Win the Serie A Golden Boot 2025/2026

Today it's time for Italy's Serie A to kick off the new 2025/2026 season, making it the last of the four major European leagues to begin. The first matches are played at 18:30 today with Genoa facing Lecce, and reigning champions Napoli away to Sassuolo.

Scott McTominay, Napoli

As mentioned, last season's champions were Napoli, who somewhat surprisingly won Lo Scudetto ahead of favourites Inter. A major reason for Napoli's success was the signing of the Scotsman Scott McTominay from Manchester United. He was brilliant throughout the season, very deservedly named Serie A's Player of the Season, and many Italians still wonder how United could let him go. Romelu Lukaku was also a hugely important piece of the puzzle for Napoli, finishing both as the team's top scorer (14 goals) and top assist provider (10 assists).

Looking at the odds from the bookmakers, Napoli are the favourites this season. The only major departure from the squad is Giacomo Raspadori (Victor Osimhen also left for Galatasaray, but he was only on loan last season and wasn't part of the title-winning side). Napoli have strengthened further with the arrival of Kevin De Bruyne from Manchester City, who is expected to stabilize the midfield even more. Naturally, the first challenger will be Inter, who will be eager for revenge after last season, followed by Juventus and Milan as outsiders.

This article primarily focuses on the Golden Boot battle, but if we were to predict the Scudetto winner for the 2025/2026 season, I personally believe Inter will step up and claim the title, with Napoli close behind. The reasoning is partly that Napoli seemed to overperform and Inter to underperform last season, and also that Napoli are not exactly used to winning the league-so doing it two years in a row feels less likely. Juventus have the potential on paper to challenge, but it's been many seasons since they've managed to get things to click, and the same goes for Milan.

Last Season's Golden Boot Winner

The top scorer in Serie A 2024/2025 didn't come from Napoli or Inter. Instead, it was somewhat surprisingly Atalanta's Mateo Retegui, who truly found his scoring touch and netted 25 goals-an impressive 32.1% of Atalanta's total goals.

Chasing him, six goals behind, was Fiorentina's Moise Kean, who finally managed to produce the goal tally that everyone always believed the "former" super talent (he is actually still only 25 years old) had in him. Four goals further back, with 15 goals each, were Atalanta's Nigerian forward Ademola Lookman and Bologna's Riccardo Orsolini, who shared third place.

Favourites to Win the Golden Boot This Season

Predicting the Golden Boot winner is never an easy task in Serie A, and with last season's top scorer having left, it's even harder. Instead of staying in Italy to defend his title and challenge for Lo Scudetto with Atalanta, Mateo Retegui chose to fulfil his childhood dream of playing in the Saudi league and joined Al-Qadsiah for a reported transfer fee of around 67 million euro.

But there's no shortage of potential goal scorers in Serie A, and here are our favourites to win the Golden Boot in 2025/2026:

1. Lautaro Martinez, Inter

Our top pick is the winner from two seasons ago, Inter's Lautaro Martinez. Last season he scored just 12 league goals, but his nine goals in the Champions League were far more impressive. Most likely, last season was just a blip for Martinez, and we expect him to return to the levels of the season before last, when he scored 24 goals.

2. Romelu Lukaku, Napoli

Even though Romelu Lukaku had a fine season - winning both the league title and the assist charts - he scored "only" 14 goals for Napoli. This season, he'll be reunited with his Belgian national team partner Kevin De Bruyne, and with De Bruyne's precise passing, Lukaku should get plenty of chances to score. He's our first challenger.

3. Jonathan David, Juventus

Canadian forward Jonathan David has delivered a steady flow of goals at French club Lille, scoring 72 league goals over the past five seasons, and now finally gets his chance at a bigger club and in a bigger league. It's becoming clear that Dusan Vlahovic will never become the prolific striker Juventus hoped for when they signed him, so the expectation is that David can step into that role now.

4. Marcus Thuram, Inter

In fourth place we place another Inter player, the Frenchman Marcus Thuram. Sure, the 28-year-old isn't known as a prolific goal scorer, but 14 goals last season plus four in the Champions League still prove he can deliver. He's also a guaranteed starter in one of the league's title favourites, a team that sometimes scores plenty of goals.

5. Gianluca Scamacca, Atalanta

With Retegui gone, someone else has to step up. Normally, the natural replacement within the squad would be Nigerian forward Ademola Lookman, but with constant rumours that he wants to leave, it will probably fall to Italian striker Gianluca Scamacca to take on the role of the team's goal scorer. Scamacca is a forward with great potential who hasn't quite found his rhythm at Atalanta yet, but this could well be the season when he takes more responsibility in attack. If Lookman does stay and feels motivated to play for the club, then we'd happily hand over this fifth spot on the list to him instead.

6. Moise Kean, Fiorentina

With 19 goals and a second-place finish in last season's Golden Boot race, you might think Moise Kean deserves to be ranked higher than sixth. What holds him back, however, is the fact that he plays for Fiorentina, which isn't considered a top club at the moment. That said, it's clearly an environment where Kean thrives, so he certainly cannot be counted out.

7. Artem Dovbyk, Roma

Ukrainian forward Artem Dovbyk had high expectations placed on him when he joined Roma last season but managed only 12 goals-still decent for a debut year in a team just below the very top. It's by no means impossible that he performs significantly better this season now that he's more settled in both the club and the league.

8. Victor Boniface, Milan

Milan struggled with goalscoring last season and lacked a truly sharp striker, but they've now brought in Nigerian forward Victor Boniface from Bayer Leverkusen to solve that problem. Boniface has been brilliant at times for Leverkusen over the past two seasons and could well be the missing piece that makes everything click for Milan. The fact that Milan have also added experience in midfield in the form of Luka Modric is certainly no disadvantage.

9. Riccardo Orsolini, Bologna

Riccardo Orsolini is a reliable goal scorer, though not one who usually racks up huge numbers. Last season, however, he did manage to notch 15 goals for Bologna. At 28, he is now at the peak of his career, and Bologna are a tricky side-hard to beat and well-respected.

10. Kenan Yildiz, Juventus

The 20-year-old Turk Kenan Yildiz is one of the most exciting young forwards in world football. Even though he hasn't yet found consistency in front of goal, his potential is sky-high, and perhaps this is the season where it all comes together.

11. Ciro Immobile, Bologna

Ciro Immobile is one of Serie A's all-time great goal scorers, having won the Golden Boot in Italy four times. Last season he spent at Beşiktaş in the Turkish league, where he scored 15 goals. Now at 35, he returns to Italy, not to Lazio but instead to Bologna. Unfortunately, age is probably starting to catch up with him in terms of goal output, but it would almost be a crime not to include such a legendary striker on this list. He can only be considered a truly major outsider though.